SHFE tin prices fluctuated upward during the night session, driven by strong macro sentiment, and are expected to maintain a rising trend. [SMM Tin Morning News]

September 25, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) opened higher at the night session's start and then fluctuated upward, closing at 272,900 yuan/mt, a slight rise of 0.51% compared to the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to informed sources, Intel (INTC.O) has approached Apple regarding an investment from the latter, a move aimed at revitalizing the struggling chipmaker, which is now partially owned by the US government. Apple and Intel also discussed ways to cooperate more closely. They emphasized that negotiations are still in early stages and may not necessarily lead to an agreement. The sources said Intel has also contacted other companies about potential investments and partnerships. This potential deal follows last week's $5 billion investment by Nvidia, which plans to collaborate with Intel on personal computer and data center chips. Japanese tech giant SoftBank Group also announced a $2 billion investment in Intel last month, seeking further expansion in the US. Apple was once a long-term customer of Intel but shifted to its own processors over the past five years. A deal with Apple would further validate Intel's transformation efforts, although it is unlikely that Apple would reintroduce Intel processors in its devices. (2) According to US media reports, the US has reduced tariffs on cars imported from the EU to 15%, retroactive to August 1, solidifying the terms of the framework trade agreement reached by both sides this summer. The US Department of Commerce and the US Trade Representative's Office published documents online on Wednesday detailing these adjustments to a range of goods tariffs. Following the news, shares of German automakers Volkswagen, Porsche, and Mercedes-Benz Group rose. The adjustments also include exemption lists for industries such as aviation, aircraft parts, generic drugs and their raw materials, as well as certain metals and ores, effective from September 1. Most new rates apply to goods shipped from the EU starting September 1, but tariff reductions for cars and parts depend on EU legislation to lower tariffs on US goods. The EU took corresponding action on August 28, paving the way for the Trump administration to implement new auto tariffs retroactively. The US stated in the notice that the product list may still be modified. (3) US Fed—① This year's voting member Goolsbee warned against a series of interest rate cuts, expressing continued concerns about inflation and stating reluctance to support a rate cut at the next meeting. ② Daly: Economic growth and labor markets are slowing down, while inflation is lower than expected, possibly warranting further interest rate cuts. ③ US Treasury Secretary Besant: Powell should have signaled interest rate cuts of 100 to 150 basis points. They are looking for an open-minded person to succeed as Fed Chair.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply is tightening in key producing regions like Yunnan. Some smelters maintained maintenance shutdowns in September (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: Orders in the solder industry, the primary consumer of tin, have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream purchasing remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the consumption decline in traditional sectors.

Spot market: Trading in the spot market was relatively sluggish yesterday. Due to the typhoon, spot market transactions in south China were temporarily suspended, while purchasing sentiment in east China was generally sluggish as tin prices continued to fluctuate at highs. Most traders traded around 10 mt yesterday, with a few traders trading more than one truckload.

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